October Was a Good Month for Bitcoin
Bitcoin beat gold in growth for the first time since June...putting down double-digit growth for October. October was a good month for Bitcoin in general, with the leading cryptocurrency growing 11.10% after an extended downtrend in August. With Bitcoin firmly established in the ~$9,000 range, eyes are now fixed on $9,500 as the next price target as the uptrend seems confirmed.
What’s this about beating gold? A twitter poll conducted by former US Senator Ron Paul was firmly in favor of holding Bitcoin over gold and t-notes over 10 years. This poll clearly shows that Bitcoin is increasingly being thought of as a long-term investment.
And in the short-term? It seems like the bulls have it, pretty solidly. Bitcoin’s price is above its EMAs (exponential moving averages), and all of those are also moving up, establishing an uptrend. At the very least, bulls have successfully kept the price above $9,000 for at least a week.
Why $9,500? Psychologically, round numbers are often set as key levels, but on the technical side, $9,550 has been established as a weekly resistance. Breaking that would solidly place Bitcoin back on the road to $10,000 and beyond.
Wut We Think: While Bitcoin seems perfectly poised for continued growth, it’s been unable to hold gains above $10,000, and the juries out whether it’ll work this time. Bitcoin’s volatility hasn't been doing anything spectacular for a few days as the price consolidates, but if the bulls can carry the price past the $9,500 resistance, then spikes of $11,000 and even $12,000 are not out of the question.
Governments Are Getting into the Crypto Game
Libra has kicked off a cryptocurrency race...as governments realize the potential in issuing their own digital currency, preferably before their rivals – both state actors and corporate. But this embrace of cryptocurrency may result in harsher penalties for traditionally decentralized cryptocurrencies.
Why are they racing at all? With Libra’s introduction, a lot of states – and their central banks – panicked, imposing stiff requirements to prevent Facebook from launching Libra. But having a stablecoin of their own would provide a lot of the same benefits without being beholden to corporate interests.
So who’s in? China, Canada, India – to list a few. China, in particular, has been especially critical of Libra, with one former Chinese official calling the idea ‘delusional’. And they’ve been at the forefront of creating their own centralized stablecoin.
What does this mean for Bitcoin? One thing that governments have never liked is crypto’s decentralized nature and vulnerability to bad actors. And while recent Chinese comments on the blockchain have been positive, giving Bitcoin a boost, their attitudes to crypto, in general, remain neutral at best.
Wut We Think: Despite states starting to investigate the blockchain space, none aside from China have made as much progress as corporate competitors like Facebook and Telegram. And in the US and Canada, at least, regulatory attitudes to Bitcoin are starting to soften, with Bakkt’s success paving the way. And with the glacial pace that a typical country moves, it seems hard to square with the often breakneck pace of blockchain development. Any government-issued stablecoins, for the moment, remain purely an idea.
Trading Spotlight: Volatility
Volatility, as a concept, invokes very separate opinions. To a traditional fund manager or investment consultant, volatility is usually seen negatively, as invested assets should provide as predictable growth as possible. Still, for the crypto trader, volatility is exactly what drives their profits.
Volatility: Volatility refers to the speed and size of price swings while trading. An asset that experiences rapid price changes over a short period is considered to be ‘volatile’, while an asset that changes slowly, and over long periods, is considered to be stable. Volatility has a number of ways to be calculated, but the most commonly used method for securities is average annual volatility. For more information, check out the Monfex Financial Dictionary.